Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery. Every week, five winning numbers are drawn,and all the players who have picked those numbers share the jackpot. It's best to play only after there have been a few weeks with no winners, because the jackpot increases each week that there is no winner.
Baggs: No, you're more likely to win the lottery when the jackpot is small,because that's when the fewest people are playing.
Which one of the following most accurately describes a mistake in the reasoning of one of the two players?
(A) Tony holds that the chances of winning are unaffected by the number of times a person plays.
(B) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning are affected by the number of other people playing.
(C) Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the size of the jackpot.
(D) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has won the week before.
(E) Tony holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the lottery for quite a while.
2
A recent study of Las Vegas clubs showed that out of a large group of club-goers surveyed, those who visited clubs more than three times a week typically drank significantly more alcoholic beverages per club visit than those who attended clubs three times a week or less. Therefore, people trying to cut back on alcohol consumption in Las Vegas should limit their club-going to three times a week maximum.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the author's conclusion?
A. Las Vegas clubs offer drink specials to customers who frequent their clubs more than 3+ times a week.
B. The study's results only held up for Las Vegas clubs, not for clubs in other major cities in Nevada.
C. Many recovering alcoholics in Las Vegas formerly frequented clubs more than three times a week.
D. The study also showed that club-goers who attend clubs 3+ times a week, unlike those who attend less than three times a week, typically choose to visit upscale clubs which require two-drink minimums.
E. Drink coupons are extremely popular in Las Vegas clubs, and are typically distributed evenly to all patrons in Las Vegas clubs, though they must be used within a week of being distributed.
3
Website Optimization Analyst: Although the website of Sellalot Inc. enjoys abundant Internet traffic, which could potentially contribute to increased sales, the large scope of this traffic actually damages the company. While it shows good customer retention statistics, the company's website suffers from poor design and content which reflects poorly on the company, thereby deterring many potential customers from choosing Sellalot.
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the analyst's argument?
A. Whether Sellalot can provide significantly more attractive marketing content to publish on its website
B. Whether the great majority of traffic is new visitors or existing customers using the website services
C. Whether the number of new visitors who do not become customers is directly proportionate to the number of visitors on the website
D. Whether the number of new customers generated by the website is directly proportionate to the number of visitors on the website
E. Whether the potential earnings from lost customers exceed the website's earning
4
The quality of heliotropism, a plant's ability to change its bearing to face the direction of the sun, is common in sunflowers. Moss displays the tendency to grow only on the side of trees opposite the most sunny direction. Therefore, moss exhibits the opposite phenomenon of heliotropism, which may be called contra-heliotropism.
The argument is flawed primarily because the author
A. does not take into consideration the fact that the direction of the sun changes during the day and between the southern and northern hemispheres
B. includes sunflowers and moss in the same group while ignoring obvious differences between them
C. creates a new word in Latin which does not really exist
D. fails to distinguish between a plant's special ability and a plant's special growth conditions
E. compares two types of plants which rarely grow in similar conditions
5
Activist: Food producers irradiate food in order to prolong its shelf life. Five animal studies were recently conducted to investigate whether this process alters food in a way that could be dangerous to people who eat it. The studies concluded that irradiated food is safe for human to eat. However, because these studies were subsequently found by a panel of independent scientists to be seriously flawed in their methodology, it follows that irradiated food is not safe for human consumption.
The reasoning in the activist's argument is flawed because that argument
(A) treats a failure to prove a claim as constituting proof of the denial of that claim
(B) treat methodological flaws in past studies as proof that it is currently not possible to devise methodologically adequate alternatives
(C) fails to consider the possibility that even a study whose methodology has no serious flaws nonetheless might provide only weak support for it's conclusion
(D) fails to consider the possibility that what is safe for animals might not always be safe for human beings
(E) fails to establish that the independent scientists know more about food irradiation than do the people who produced the five studies
Baggs: No, you're more likely to win the lottery when the jackpot is small,because that's when the fewest people are playing.
Which one of the following most accurately describes a mistake in the reasoning of one of the two players?
(A) Tony holds that the chances of winning are unaffected by the number of times a person plays.
(B) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning are affected by the number of other people playing.
(C) Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the size of the jackpot.
(D) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has won the week before.
(E) Tony holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the lottery for quite a while.
2
A recent study of Las Vegas clubs showed that out of a large group of club-goers surveyed, those who visited clubs more than three times a week typically drank significantly more alcoholic beverages per club visit than those who attended clubs three times a week or less. Therefore, people trying to cut back on alcohol consumption in Las Vegas should limit their club-going to three times a week maximum.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the author's conclusion?
A. Las Vegas clubs offer drink specials to customers who frequent their clubs more than 3+ times a week.
B. The study's results only held up for Las Vegas clubs, not for clubs in other major cities in Nevada.
C. Many recovering alcoholics in Las Vegas formerly frequented clubs more than three times a week.
D. The study also showed that club-goers who attend clubs 3+ times a week, unlike those who attend less than three times a week, typically choose to visit upscale clubs which require two-drink minimums.
E. Drink coupons are extremely popular in Las Vegas clubs, and are typically distributed evenly to all patrons in Las Vegas clubs, though they must be used within a week of being distributed.
3
Website Optimization Analyst: Although the website of Sellalot Inc. enjoys abundant Internet traffic, which could potentially contribute to increased sales, the large scope of this traffic actually damages the company. While it shows good customer retention statistics, the company's website suffers from poor design and content which reflects poorly on the company, thereby deterring many potential customers from choosing Sellalot.
Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in order to evaluate the analyst's argument?
A. Whether Sellalot can provide significantly more attractive marketing content to publish on its website
B. Whether the great majority of traffic is new visitors or existing customers using the website services
C. Whether the number of new visitors who do not become customers is directly proportionate to the number of visitors on the website
D. Whether the number of new customers generated by the website is directly proportionate to the number of visitors on the website
E. Whether the potential earnings from lost customers exceed the website's earning
4
The quality of heliotropism, a plant's ability to change its bearing to face the direction of the sun, is common in sunflowers. Moss displays the tendency to grow only on the side of trees opposite the most sunny direction. Therefore, moss exhibits the opposite phenomenon of heliotropism, which may be called contra-heliotropism.
The argument is flawed primarily because the author
A. does not take into consideration the fact that the direction of the sun changes during the day and between the southern and northern hemispheres
B. includes sunflowers and moss in the same group while ignoring obvious differences between them
C. creates a new word in Latin which does not really exist
D. fails to distinguish between a plant's special ability and a plant's special growth conditions
E. compares two types of plants which rarely grow in similar conditions
5
Activist: Food producers irradiate food in order to prolong its shelf life. Five animal studies were recently conducted to investigate whether this process alters food in a way that could be dangerous to people who eat it. The studies concluded that irradiated food is safe for human to eat. However, because these studies were subsequently found by a panel of independent scientists to be seriously flawed in their methodology, it follows that irradiated food is not safe for human consumption.
The reasoning in the activist's argument is flawed because that argument
(A) treats a failure to prove a claim as constituting proof of the denial of that claim
(B) treat methodological flaws in past studies as proof that it is currently not possible to devise methodologically adequate alternatives
(C) fails to consider the possibility that even a study whose methodology has no serious flaws nonetheless might provide only weak support for it's conclusion
(D) fails to consider the possibility that what is safe for animals might not always be safe for human beings
(E) fails to establish that the independent scientists know more about food irradiation than do the people who produced the five studies
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